The Stern Review:

Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at the World Bank, was commissioned by Gordon Brown, UK Chancellor, to write a report about the anticipated effects of global warming. Given that he is an economist, there is a substantial emphasis on the monetary cost; however, it does go into some depth about the likely effects of global warming and what we need to do.

Summary of the report's findings:

Temperature

• Carbon emissions have already pushed up global temperatures by half a degree Celsius
• If no action is taken on emissions, there is more than a 75% chance of global temperatures rising between two and three degrees Celsius over the next 50 years
• There is a 50% chance that average global temperatures could rise by five degrees Celsius

Environmental impact

• Melting glaciers will increase flood riskCrop yields will decline, particularly in Africa
• Rising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displaced
• Up to 40% of species could face extinction
• There will be more examples of extreme weather patterns

The report goes into some length about what we need to do. However, I want to focus on one particular recommendation - stabilising the amount of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere at 500 to 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050. Now, bear in mind that at the level Sir Nicholas Stern is proposing here, there will still be significant climate change. It is somewhat alarming to know that to acheive this level, the world will need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 60%!

60%!

I may be being rather skeptical when it comes to putting trust in politicians - paticularly that house plant in the White House - but I just don't see this happening... at least not until something totally tragic happens. For one, the likely victims in the short term are the poorer countries. Until the consequences of global warming start to affect the richer countries directly - particularly the United States - I anticipate there will be little effort made to stem the emissions.

For further information:

The Stern Report
Analysis: A stern warning
Analysis: Stern's impact
Simple verdict: time is running out
White House nods at climate change report

"This disaster is not set to happen in some science fiction future many years ahead, but in our lifetime ... We can't wait the five years it took to negotiate Kyoto - we simply don't have the time. We accept we have to go further (than Kyoto)."

Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister